Issues and numbers

Make the numbers add up.

Plain comparisons first, with the detail and sources below, then the questions we are asking the district to answer.

How the district’s numbers compare

Make the district explain its numbers.

Families should not have to reconstruct the case for moving their schools. These comparisons show what changed and where the district still owes the community a clear explanation.

What each measure means

Planned capacity: The number of students a proposed configuration is designed to accommodate.
Projected enrollment: An estimate of future students, based on assumptions.
Actual enrollment: A dated count of enrolled students.
Seat allocation: Space assigned to particular grades or programs; not a student count.
Utilization: Enrollment divided by a stated capacity. Different denominators produce different percentages.

Published projection vs. superintendent’s statement

Will the new K–8 open with fewer students than projected?

The district’s October 6 table projects 920 students for the zoned K–8. During the October 13 vote discussion, Superintendent Hendrick gave a lower estimate of 700–800. Families need the district to explain the difference before it proceeds with the campus moves.

Published projected enrollment

920

Zoned K–8
Tarpon Springs Middle

Sunset Hills / Tarpon Springs Middle recommendation · p. 1, Table 3

Scope and source details

Grades: K–8
School year / scope: 2027–28
Source date: October 6, 2026
Evidence: District recommendation

Superintendent’s spoken enrollment estimate

700–800

Zoned K–8
Tarpon Springs Middle

October 13 School Board meeting recording · 3:33:57

Scope and source details

Grades: K–8
School year / scope: 2027–28 plan discussion
Source date: October 13, 2026 (meeting)
Evidence: Meeting statement; timestamp confirmed by site organizer

At the same 1,052 planned capacity, 700–800 students would mean about 67%–76% utilization (our calculation: 700 ÷ 1,052 = 66.5%; 800 ÷ 1,052 = 76.0%), compared with the district’s published 87%. Ask the Board to require a reconciled enrollment model and explain the consequences for staffing, courses and long-term viability.

Capacity and enrollment are different measures

Fundamental capacity is not an enrollment forecast.

The revised Fundamental plan has a smaller destination campus. Its capacity is a planned full K–8 configuration; enrollment was still undetermined in the October table.

Planned capacity

1,052

Proposed Fundamental K–8
Tarpon Springs Middle

Original Tarpon Springs recommendation · p. 1, Table 3

Scope and source details

Grades: K–8
School year / scope: 2027–28 proposal
Source date: September 10, 2026
Evidence: Verified in source

Planned capacity

546

Fundamental K–8
Sunset Hills

Fundamental K–8 recommendation · p. 1, Table 2

Scope and source details

Grades: K–8
School year / scope: Full K–8; phase-in through 2029–30
Source date: October 6, 2026
Evidence: Verified in source

Projected enrollment

TBD

Fundamental K–8
Sunset Hills

Fundamental K–8 recommendation · p. 1, Table 2

Scope and source details

Grades: K–8
School year / scope: 2027–28 proposal
Source date: October 6, 2026
Evidence: Verified in source

546 is 348 elementary seats plus 198 middle-grade seats. It does not mean 546 students have enrolled. The table lists projected enrollment as TBD, while the PDF’s note says enrollment “is anticipated to be at capacity” over time.

Read the original documents and preserved copies. Download the evidence register (JSON).

Detailed campus capacity comparison

Read the underlying data

The capacity figures need a public reconciliation.

The district still needs to explain the capacity difference at Fundamental. Other figures match the state workbook’s capacity column, but “capacity” and “student stations” are not interchangeable.

On a small screen, scroll the table horizontally to see all five columns.

Existing campuses: October proposal compared with the May 2026 FISH summary
School / FISH facility number	Proposal “permanent capacity”	FISH total satisfactory stations (L)	FISH capacity (M)	Finding / FacilityData row
Tarpon Springs Fundamental · 123	232	294	294	62 below FISH capacity. Row 2977.
Sunset Hills Elementary · 161	548	548	548	Matches both fields in the district PDF. Row 3005.
Tarpon Springs Middle · 120	1,169	1,299	1,169	Matches capacity; stations are 130 higher. Row 2975.
Joseph L. Carwise Middle · 16	1,251	1,390	1,251	Matches capacity; stations are 139 higher. Row 2883.
Tarpon Springs Elementary · 117	Not provided	718	718	Context for alternatives, not proof of available program space. Row 2972.

Sources: Fundamental Table 2; zoned K–8 Table 3; FDOE FISH Summary data, FacilityData, columns L–M and rows above. All workbook rows are district 52 (Pinellas).

Calculated comparison

112.5% vs. 88.8%

The denominator changes the story.

For the same 261 students in the August 24, 2026 count, 261 ÷ 232 = 112.5% (the PDF rounds to 113%). Using the workbook’s 294 capacity gives 261 ÷ 294 = 88.8%.

This is a comparison of two denominators, not a finding that 33 usable seats are available. The district should document the inventory date, room exclusions and program adjustments that explain the 62-seat difference.

What the workbook can and cannot establish

FacilityData!A1 identifies district FISH data reported as having satisfactory student stations in May 2026. Row 8 labels column L “Total Satisfactory Stations” and M “Capacity.” It does not label either field “permanent-only capacity.”

The proposal’s chart note describes its grey line as permanent building capacity (student stations), while the TSMS and Carwise table values match column M. Ask the district to reconcile the definitions and any permanent/relocatable exclusions before treating those differences as errors.

Document dates and version questions

Document dates and public accountability

The PDF says October 6. Its file data says October 7.

The district’s current Sunset Hills/TSMS recommendation displays October 6, 2026, but its embedded PDF creation and modification timestamps both read October 7, 2026, at 9:18:26 a.m. EDT—the day after the workshop.

Visible document dates compared with embedded PDF properties
District PDF	Visible date	CreationDate and ModDate (both identical)
Sunset Hills / TSMS zoned K–8	October 6, 2026	October 7, 2026 · 9:18:26 a.m. EDT 13:18:26 UTC
Fundamental K–8	October 6, 2026	October 5, 2026 · 11:17:47 a.m. EDT 15:17:47 UTC

The October 13 draft minutes (p. 1, item 2.1) say item 8.3 “was updated to include corrected numbers for Sunset Hills Elementary School capacity, and the change was posted online.” The site organizer reports that staff made the correction after being alerted to an inaccurate figure. The current PDF lists 548, matching the May FISH summary. The later timestamp establishes a mismatch between the displayed date and the file’s recorded dates; it does not identify what was changed or prove when the capacity correction occurred. The earlier version is needed to establish the earlier figure.

Why does a file with October 7 metadata still carry only an October 6 document date? Publish the version presented to the Board and a dated change log for any subsequent corrections. Families should be able to trace which figures the Board considered and what changed.

Sources: October 13 School Board draft minutes, p. 1, item 2.1; PDF properties of the two official files linked above. Raw CreationDate and ModDate values: zoned K–8 D:20261007131826+00'00'; Fundamental D:20261005151747+00'00'. These are embedded metadata, not a server upload log or a complete editing history.

Renovation costs and projected savings

October 2026 update

What the new plan budgets—and leaves open.

District estimate

$3.1M

TSMS renovations for elementary students: bathrooms, playgrounds and first-floor elementary spaces.

District estimate

$200K

Sunset Hills classroom conversion for middle-grade science.

Calculation

$3.3M

Combined stated one-time investments: $3.1 million + $200,000. This is not a verified all-in project budget.

District estimate

$4.6M/yr

Tarpon Springs-area savings, repeated in both PDFs. Count it once. Components: $4M personnel + $590K operational, rounded.

The documents report past maintenance and improvements of more than $967,000 at Fundamental, more than $1.1 million at Sunset Hills, and nearly $654,000 at TSMS since 2020. Those totals do not by themselves establish facility condition or which configuration is best.

Sources: Fundamental recommendation, p. 1; zoned K–8 recommendation, pp. 1–2. Both display October 6, 2026 on the page; their PDF metadata dates differ.

Unanswered questions

Answers to demand. Changes to push for.

The sources reviewed here do not resolve these questions. Ask the Board to require public answers and use them to reconsider the plan. We will track documented answers so families can judge whether the district has addressed the concerns.

Construction safety and the portable contingency

Following the October 27 School Board meeting, ask the district to publish a dated construction schedule, when lead-paint and asbestos testing will happen, the results and any required response, and how students and staff will be protected during work. For the reported February–July timeline and August opening, specify the deadline for deciding on portables, their locations, costs and expected duration. Families deserve answers about the older building before construction proceeds.

Enrollment assumptions

Publish current enrollment and complete 2027–28 projections for every Tarpon Springs school, including the most recent count for Tarpon Springs High. Show the formula behind the 920-student K–8 projection and reconcile it with Superintendent Hendrick’s 700–800 estimate at 3:33:57 of the October 13 meeting. The October table’s footnote includes 181 current Tarpon Springs Elementary students in grades 3–5; show how those cohorts are counted by year. Identify assumptions about rezoning, grade progression and movement into Fundamental.

Capacity and utilization

Which rooms and program adjustments explain the existing Fundamental capacity difference? Publish consistent definitions and the denominator used for utilization.

Campus selection

What alternatives were evaluated, including Tarpon Springs Elementary, and how did educational needs, transportation, costs and community input affect the choice?

Fundamental admission priorities

The district’s 2026–27 application manual gives no more than 50% of the seats left after other priorities to the closest applicants at Tarpon Springs Fundamental Elementary. Most other elementary and middle programs are capped at 20%. Proximity applies only to first-choice kindergarten, sixth- and ninth-grade applications. Publish whether that rule will apply at the Sunset Hills K–8, including eligible grades, available seats, the order of other priorities and the Sunset Hills priority discussed October 13. Model how transfers into Fundamental would affect the zoned K–8 and Tarpon Springs Elementary, and include longer-term effects on Tarpon Springs High. The district must show how it will protect the stability of the whole school community.

2026–27 application manual, p. 6

Long-term contingency planning

What happens if the zoned K–8, Tarpon Springs Elementary and Tarpon Springs High all fall below 60% utilization in 2027–28 or shortly afterward? Publish a long-term sustainability plan and the alternatives the Board would consider. Use that analysis to reevaluate the current plan before further school communities are put at risk. This is a scenario the district should address, not a forecast or an automatic closure rule.

What enrollment makes a K–8 sustainable?

Publish the enrollment needed to fund the new K–8’s staffing, full curriculum, electives and student services. Show the cost and program consequences at 920 students and at the superintendent’s 700–800 estimate at 3:33:57 of the October 13 meeting. Families need a sustainability model before the district proceeds with the move.

Protect Tarpon Springs Elementary from further decline.

The August 2026 enrollment count is 299; the May FISH capacity is 718—about 42% utilization using those dated figures. Require a current count, 2027–28 projections and an assessment of how expanded Fundamental admissions could affect the school. Ask the Board to explain how it will protect this neighborhood school from further enrollment loss.

Enrollment source and dates · FISH workbook, FacilityData!M2972

The family transition

When will families receive grade-level staffing, transportation, preschool capacity, program continuity and campus-readiness plans? What support will be available before the move?

More detailed requests: staffing, costs, preschool and alternatives

Reconcile the 62-seat Fundamental difference.

Publish the room-level bridge from FISH capacity of 294 to the proposal’s 232, with dates and permanent, relocatable and program-specific exclusions.

Explain both K–8 capacity conversions.

Show how Sunset Hills moves from 548 to 546 and TSMS from 1,169 to 1,052, including the allocation of classrooms and spaces needed for younger children, science, arts and support services.

Publish the enrollment model by grade and year.

Explain the zoned K–8 projection of 920, the footnote including 181 current Tarpon Springs Elementary students in grades 3–5, and how aging cohorts, rezoning and choice assumptions interact. Fundamental enrollment remains TBD.

Show what 198 middle-grade Fundamental seats support.

Publish phased staffing, course sections, electives, exceptional student education, interventions and extracurricular plans. An even split would be 66 students per grade; that is arithmetic, not a published grade allocation.

Reconcile Carwise’s projected increase.

Explain the increase from 829 to 1,141 (312 students), the 469-student affected-zone population and the stated 75% market-share assumption with grade-level counts and other boundary changes.

Release a complete financial comparison.

Show how the $4.6M annual estimate was rebuilt for the revised plan, including staffing, transportation, transition costs, recurring costs and the future use of the current Fundamental site.

Document transportation and program continuity.

Publish bus eligibility, routes and travel times, parent drop-off analysis at Sunset Hills, and a staffing and space plan for Cambridge, arts, band, PreK and student supports.

Compare alternatives and explain community input.

Evaluate keeping current campuses, other K–8 arrangements and options involving Tarpon Springs Elementary using the same dates and capacity definitions. Publish the reasons for rejecting each option and how family feedback changed the plan.

Where is the teacher staffing plan for a full Fundamental K–8 at Sunset Hills?

The proposal provides for 546 students at full capacity, but projected enrollment is still TBD. How many additional teachers and support staff would be needed as grades 6–8 are added and the school fills? Publish current and proposed staffing by grade, subject and year, class-size assumptions, annual costs, and how those costs affect the claimed personnel savings.

Source: Fundamental recommendation, p. 1. Full capacity is a proposed scenario, not current Sunset Hills enrollment.

Could Tarpon Springs Elementary be a better location for Fundamental K–8?

The district-sourced enrollment data published by the Tampa Bay Times lists Tarpon Springs Elementary’s August 2026 10-day count at 299 students. The May 2026 FISH summary lists 718 capacity at that campus. Comparing those figures gives approximately 42% utilization and a difference of 419 between capacity and enrollment.

The sources reviewed here include no comparison showing whether this campus would be a better option than Sunset Hills. Publish one. Evaluate classroom suitability, conversion costs, transportation, staffing, program continuity and the effect on the 299 students already there. Explain whether this alternative was studied and why it was accepted or rejected.

Sources: Tampa Bay Times enrollment report and its school enrollment table; FDOE FISH Summary data, FacilityData!M2972. Calculations: 299 ÷ 718 ≈ 41.6%; 718 − 299 = 419. These different-date figures do not establish 419 usable program seats or prove a K–8 conversion is feasible.

Can Little Spongers accommodate every VPK and PPK space currently offered at Sunset Hills?

The recommendation moves Sunset Hills’ PreK program to Little Spongers at Tarpon Springs High School, but the published PDFs do not provide a side-by-side preschool capacity comparison. Publish current enrollment, available spaces, staffing and classroom capacity separately for VPK and PPK at both locations, including spaces already committed to children at Little Spongers.

How many Sunset Hills children can the receiving program accommodate after those existing commitments? If it cannot preserve the same number of spaces, how many children and families would be affected, and what alternatives would they receive? Explain any changes to eligibility, hours, transportation and required student services. Report affected households as well as children rather than assuming one child equals one parent.

Source: zoned K–8 recommendation, p. 1. The PDF describes a PreK move without separate VPK/PPK capacity figures. The number of affected families cannot be calculated from the published recommendation.

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